on Friday Ryan Lawler from Contentinople posted an article titled Boxee CEO: Consumers Will Get A la Carte Online. which led Mark Cuban to post Why Do Internet People Think Content People Are Stupid ?
which triggered the following exchange:
me:
mark,
bundled offering is not going away. what is going away is the
traditional concept of a “channel†and the idea that the cable company
is the one deciding what content is included in the bundle. the user
should and will be the one making the decisions on what he is going to
pay for. while it may be bad news for some incumbents it is overall a
great positive for the content industry and the consumer.as a cable channel your primary concern is your ability to negotiate
your way into the basic cable package with as many cable operators,
and to get the highest fee for it. in an Internet/on-demand world your
primary concern is the quality of your content, since you are held
accountable by the consumer. if consumers want your content they will
be willing to pay for it either with cash or with their time (watching
ads).in the same way that in the Internet age printing a newspaper is an
inefficient way to deliver news, building a channel and programming a
24hr schedule is an inefficient way to offer video content. i
understand it is a lucrative business. you invest in 1-3 originally
produced (or exclusively licensed) core programs, come up with 5-7
cheap to produce shows, license a bunch of syndicated content, get
cable companies to carry it and voila! you’ve got a great business.
but this model breaks in an on-demand world, and while it may take a
few years the change is inevitable.it may be that the biggest risk you will face is that things are too
good for you living off the cable model, and while you are trying to
protect your profitable (yet future challenged) business, some
talented, hungry, motivated guys on the Internet will produce better
content for your audience and eat your lunch.btw, i don’t know much about HDNet. ironically my cable provider (CableVision) does not carry your channel..
avner ronen
http://twitter.com/boxee
Mark Cuban:
From MC> Avner, your argument has no merit. None. I can understand why you hope it ends up this way, but it wont for a variety of reasons. The least of which is that cable and telco networks are not static. There is nothing the internet can do technically that your local Cablevision, Time Warner, Verizon, Charter, etc cant currently or in the next few years be able to do. Unlimited VOD in a switched environment, Just a matter of switches and hard drives. Networked DVRs, so that there is no need for a device in the home at all, just a legal issue. You pick the feature you like on the net. If youtube can do it, so can your local cable/telco.
BUT things are not getting more flexibile for video on the net, its getting worse. You just dont want to face it. The amount of bandwidth in the home, not to the home, in the home is a huge limiting factor that no one seems to want to talk about. You want to download from an internet source to your laptop, while you are wathing your favorite show on Hulu, probably not a problem. Except that your wife/daughter/brother/son/father/mother, etc want to do the same thing at the same time. In HD. So rather than your 10mbs or 20mbs downstream being just fine, the 5 HD streams you are always trying to download at your house is killing your ability to hang out on facebook or upload pictures to Flickr.
But wait there is more. Go to netflix and ask their users about how the quality of the streams are lately ? And how are users in your al a carte internet video universe going to feel when they have to pay more for a show because more people are watching it ? Thats going to make sense to them wont it ? They wont care that more users increase bandwidth costs. On EVERY video distribution network, NO EXCEPTIONS there is more than 30x the bandwidth allocated to the traditional delivery of content vs the open contention internet delivery of content.Then there is the risk of PCs going smaller with less horsepower to run multiple video streams and the real killer, those same people who might turn off cable to save money might just be the same people who turn off their wired broadband to the home and just use their mobile devices with 3G. Some percentage, maybe a large pct of your “over the top†, price sensitive market is at risk of going small. mobile small.
The concept of “users always want choice†really really sounds nice. It makes for a great panel argument. But the reality is that its not true. Ultimate choice requires work. Consumers like to think they have choice, but their consumption habits say they prefer easy. Youtube is the perfect example. Millions upon millions of choices that never get seen. The videos that get posted and expected to be seen are the ones from traditional media and providers that already have an audience, ala jon stewart. The rest have to fight for an audience.
Look at whats happening on youtube. Youtube is paying to get the best content. Everyone else who is trying to make a living is giving shit away in order to build their subscriber numbers. All the young, talented and hungry, whore out their product with lame “subscribe now, please†or “subscribe now and you can win…â€
The TV Anywhere solution is the best solution out there. Its the best of both worlds , you just have to subscribe to cable/sat/telco video to get it. Which in fact most people already do. So for most of the US, broadband consuming world, it will be the path of least resistance. They can have ultimate choice, via VOD, or they can watch TV the traditional way. Their call. Content creators will easily fulfill users demands, whichever way they want. Thats the ultimate choice isnt it ? Give me all the content I want on demand, on my tv, or let me watch channels that package the type of content i want to get, with out me having to do the work of searching for it. I can put together my favorites on my remote and stay there, or venture out easily when Im bored. Thats the way it will work
Get ready for the deadpool. Sorry
me:
mark,
re your “anything the Internet can do, Cable can do better†argument:
the issue is not switches and hard-drives. the issue is the open
nature of the Internet eco-system. the Cable companies can come up
with Tru2way, EBIF or any other catchy name, but as long as they
decide what innovation gets through to the consumers’ screen it has
FAIL written all over it. i guess they can try re-inventing the
Internet. good luck.re your “the Internet just can’t handle it†argument: the Internet is
not ready for live HD streaming events to millions of households, yet.
but i would not make a long term bet against the underlying
technology. in the meantime there is over-the-air digital broadcast
that delivers higher quality HD streams than Cable and costs nothing.
the combination of broadband video and OTA will be good enough for
most consumers.re your “people will turn off wired broadband for 3G†argument: people
don’t care how they get their broadband, whether its DSL, Cable, FTTx,
WiMax, 3G or super-fast-pigeons. what people care about is a fast and
uninterrupted connection. what i don’t think we’ll see is people
downgrading to slower bandwidth.re your “people prefer easy over choice†argument: i don’t think these
are conflicting needs. people want an easy way to get the content
they’d like to watch. the arrival of cable meant more choice for
consumers and as the ratings prove the availability of more channels
on Cable did reduce the ratings of the major networks. the Internet is
the next evolution. more niche content means viewers will be able to
find more content that they are really interested in watching. finding
content online is getting better, faster and easier. the fact that
anybody can post a video to YouTube means millions of videos don’t get
watched, so what? i think it’s beautiful.re your “TV Everywhere is the best thing ever†argument: i also think
it’s great. and we would love to have it on boxee. but to try and
force it as the only viable option to get content is an artificial
attempt to save an old business model. TV Everywhere as an exclusive
option is not that great for ESPN, HBO, Showtime, CNN, or any other
channel that has great content and delivers great value to the
consumer.re HDNet: syndicating shows and movies is not a differentiated
offering in an on-demand world. you will live or die by the quality of
the content you produce. Dan Rather is great, but the other shows of
girls in bikinis and guys beating up each other can easily be replaced
by amateurs with Flip cameras taking videos of girls in smaller
bikinis and guys in backyards trying to kill each other.get ready for the cesspool. sorry.
avner
Mark Cuban:
i will move it over here.
1st HDNet. Dan Rather is a great show. But as far as “guys beating each other up can be replaced by guys with camerasâ€. Thats just ignorant. There is the UFC on Spike and PPV, and HDNet has deals with everyone else. We dominate the live events business for MMA. Find a faster growing sport geared towards men. But that’s my business and you obviously don’t know it. We have doubled our subscribers every year. Moving on.You are mistaken if you believe that Boxee users will have “fast and uninterrupted†connections in a multi HDTV home that is depending on their broadband connections for all of their entertainment viewing, you are sadly mistaken. Home consumption of bandwidth for applications beyond entertainment video will grow far faster than the bandwidth being delivered to the home. (And those who think P2P is even remotely a cure for this, dont know how inefficient P2P is on the last mile).
But this is what it really comes down to. Do you not see that in your hope for boxee you are talking out of both sides of your mouth ?
On the one hand you are depending on the cable/telcos that provide Broadband internet to evolve and improve bandwidth to the home to the point that all and any video from any source that is compatible with Boxee will provide a smooth experience.
Thats a technology bet on them
ON the other hand, you are saying the same telco/cable companies that are smart enough to provide everything you need to be successful in the delivery of broadband are too stupid to be able to enhance their video platform to provide the same software you and others offer on the net.
You dont think someone is saying to Cicso, who now manufactures set top boxes “hey john chambers, we need set top boxes that can run customizable applications on Tru2Way.â€
They are not as stupid as you think
me:
you’re right. i know nothing about MMA. the fact that this type of violence is becoming mainstream entertainment is a topic for a separate discussion.
in the US we’re years away from the Internet serving as platform for multiple HD streams. but in places like Hong Kong and Scandinavia there are homes with symmetric 100Mb connections for less than $50 a month. and that’s the low-tier package. bliss.
i would love for my Cable/Telco providers to focus on being great network providers rather than try to decide what content i should or should not have access to, what application i should or should not run, invent new standards for Interactive TV, Enhanced TV, whatever TV. all with the goal of trying to maintain control, so they don’t lose a grip of their lucrative business model.
their network infrastructure is a great asset. their billing relationship with the user is another one. they should try to build their future business around these two foundations.
innovation in the living room will not come from the set-top makers or the networks. if you would like to see the wild creativity of the Internet come to the TV screen, well you need to let the Internet come to the TV screen..
Mark Cuban:
if you havent read this article on streaming over at the netflix blog, you should. In particular note the part on the last mile “that they cant do anything aboutâ€. In particular I love the reference to PC Online Backups.
Lets see, 3 PCs at home that I want to backup , dang, its mindight when my backups start and its right when i wanted to watch something online..thank goodness my TV doesnt have this problem
http://blog.netflix.com/2009/03/netflix-trying-for-consistent.html
me:
the Internet is far from perfect when it comes to streaming high def video. there are issues with the CDNs, the codecs, the last mile and the last foot. people using hulu, netflix, abc.com, tv.com are upgrading their broadband packages, upgrading their WiFi routers, turning off bittorrent, and sometimes (rarely) get frustrated.
you keep coming back to the argument that the Internet is not ready (today) for delivering multiple HD streams to the home. but it’s not the relevant use case. the question is whether a 23yr old that just graduated from college and wants to watch his favorite shows and movies or the 35yr old couple that barely has time to watch TV can rely on the Internet as their main source of entertainment. and the answer to that question is a resounding YES.
you may choose to ignore it, but it will be a growing challenge for your business. if you want to reach that consumer you better start building out HDNet’s Internet presence. you can create a much more engaging and immersive experience once you have power of the web at your fingertips, and you can come up with new business models.
over the next 3-5 years the Internet and in-home infrastructure will get better, more content will be available online and the technology will become accessible for the mainstream consumer. then we can debate whether the Internet is ready for the multi HD streams to a single home, but even then i am not sure that would be the right question to ask.
the user doesn’t care whether the show he is watching is coming over cable, sat or the Internet. the user cares about the content and how much it costs. for some cost will be more important than quality (e.g. will prefer SD streaming for free vs. $2.99 for an episode in HD), others may feel the opposite, and the same user may make different decisions based on the specific content.
if Cable will offer that type of choice then great. if not then more people will turn to the Internet as an alternative solution. in either case your business will be impacted.
btw, boxee is not about cable replacement. it is about delivering the best 10ft user experience for consuming media. ultimately we are agnostic of the delivery network and the business model of the content owners.
the discussions continues in the comment section below
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just as i suspected. the cable companies are still just as clueless as they were before. i dont want to continue to pay for tv AND internet. i can get most of the content i want on the internet, thats why i cancelled cable last year even BEFORE boxee arrived.
Agree 100%. Now that software has given us options, there is no longer room for a two service model (cable for internet and TV). I have a feeling once iptv takes off, you will see cable companies really put it to us by charging for the amount of bandwidth we use.
The cable companies and major content owners still have a lot of power, but you can't fight the consumer and you can't stop innovation. I understand why Cuban wants to believe what he believes, but it seems short sighted to ignore this new reality. They can try to protect their business model with anywhere tv, but there are already too many alternatives for them to dominate this new distribution channel. WHEN HD streaming gains mainstream acceptance, I've no doubt that someone will want to make a fortune solving this problem.
didn't mark make his money by being first to the game at streaming audio when everyone was on dialup? I find it interesting he is taking the "there isn't enough bandwith" defense with video…
Great debate. Thanks to both of you for this engaging, passionate discussion.
Greetings readers,
The article that set this whole debate off and a new Q&A with Avner have been posted over at Contentinople (www.contentinople.com). If you haven't check out our site, please do — lots of resources.
http://www.contentinople.com/document.asp?doc_id=…
Also, if you register for the Web site and post a comment and then let me know via email (raynovich@contentinople.com), I will send you a Contentinople T-shirt.
Scott Raynovich
Publisher
Contentinople (www.contentinople.com)
This is a great debate and nice to see people from the industry actually taking up the cause. At least we can get some clarity on the position.
This should be a simple problem to solve. As pointed out other countries already have much higher speeds available, so the logical question would be to ask if there has been a drop off in pay tv subscriptions ? Any real data available ?
The other major hurdle I see here is the funding issue for content creators. The distributors are at least taking significant risk with the content creators in funding new content creation today by providing up front funding to get shows commissioned and produced. The highly prized 'quality' content is extremely expensive to make and funding is coming from the distributors to at least offset some of that cost. If the distributors fail to provide that funding all the risk will be onto the content creator to get funding and hope that it is compelling enough to make back his money. That is a lot of risk and the shortfall for funding will have to come from somewhere, either through subscription revenue or more advertising.
I don't know if it is still the case, but when FiOS first launched you had the classic triple play package which came out to a sizeable $150/month or so. There was also the option to get an ultra fast fiber fed internet connection without the encumberment of 'services' delivered by your local provider. The only issue with that was that the price was more expensive than the triple play package. In other words Vz were going to get their pound of flesh one way or another.
Reality is that they can negotiate lower cost of content in bulk than an individual can and when content companies see the real effects of reduced cable revenue due to people cord cutting, they will need to find other ways to retrieve that revenue.
Let's hope that they do something smart and start offering it 'a la carte', but then it will rely on the individuals willingness to pay for subscription content that they were happily enjoying for free. The alternative is that they get scared and start pulling content from the web, so the future effectively is in our hands, we can vote with our wallets…
When we moved last fall we decided to cancel our comcast cable for good and save some money by only subscribing to high-speed internet.
I don't feel as if I am missing out or am frustrated by anything. I watch video content of my choosing, when I want to, through various avenues. I only look forward to the day when everyone is living like this and even more content is available, at higher quality.
Online video has a very exciting future, and I can't wait for it to get here!
I find the total inability to use capital letters to be very distracting. Are you guys both so busy you can't type emails that would pass muster with a fourth grade teacher?
The ultimate irony in this debate is that Mark Cuban is the ORIGINAL creator of "premium" content delivered on the internet. He created broadcast.com which showed premium (albeit old public domain) video. Yahoo bought it from him for an un-Godly amount of money and he used it to buy the Mavricks and found HDNet.
Re: Quality of Netflix streams?
They rock. Best thing that ever happened to my Xbox and my living room. Netflix is a glimpse of the future of tv. Why the hell pay for a la carte content where you can pay $15 a month and watch all that stuff with no commercial interruptions.
But down the line, all of you are going down. Just imagine the speed of broadband networks 5 years from now, and The Pirate Bay or Mininova announcing a TV service. You do a search and you can find whatever show, whatever film (without having to ask the content owners for permission, they either get on the boat or they don't monetize) is available and all the data gets transmitted over a massive bittorrent network. If they're merciful enough to let the content owners claim their content and monetize be it from ads or subscription then content owners will have three options, join the wagon and make some money, try to sue the pirate service, or die.
I have NEVER had cable. I don't think I ever will. I know, maybe I'm not in the mainstream, but I'm not paying $100/mo for the great majority of what you serve up on cable. Frankly, it's mostly garbage.
I upgraded my DSL to 6mbps just recently from 1.5, in part because boxee/hulu was subject to stuttering while someone else was surfing. Now I'm wireless N and gigabit ethernet all around, my Mac Mini running Boxee is my mediacenter, and all is good.
I want CHOICE. Mark Cuban doesn't give me CHOICE. He gives me garbage. I can't tell you how many times I visit friends or family or go on vacation and see what constitutes cable. All those channels and NOTHING to watch? Good lord.
Anyway, Mr. Cuban might know his business, might not, but it could also be that he's like the record companies in the 90's… too certain of his own superiority to see the end coming. The end IS coming, the only way it will stop is if Cuban manages to close up the 'net the way his cable company is closed, but that genie is getting harder and harder to put back in the bottle.
I'm no expert. I'm not really "mainstream." I probably don't represent what will play in Peoria. All I know is, if I got laid off, the LAST thing I would give up is broadband. If I had cable, it would be the FIRST thing I'd give up.
Oh, and one other thing… HD.
Hulu is good enough for me and my family on my 46" Toshiba LCD. The only thing I don't like is the lack of surround, but I'm sure that will be solved in the near future. Heck, the Twilight movie my daughter downloaded from Apple plays in HD with 5.1, so it's probably coming to Hulu.
DVDs are great. I get 5.1 audio there too.
AND I get free HD with 5.1 over the airwaves, unlike a lot of cable TV.
Realistically, were I a content provider or a cable provider, and I saw boxee/hulu/or whatever taking off in a real way – I would kill Hulu in the short term. I don't see how the current model of a fraction of the advertising on Hulu could possibly replace the massive advertising revenue or cabletv subscription revenue in the current model. This would be a serious short term threat to my business, and I would protect it.
I would guess that the current Hulu ads primarily go to Hulu's operating costs, not to compensate the content providers.
While the content providers (and cable companies perhaps) need to figure out an online/on-demand/ala carte business model that is sustainable, in the short term boxee's pressure on Hulu seems more likely to cause a Hulu shutdown (or a general pull-back of legally obtainable online content) than anything else.
Here's to hoping the content providers figure this out soon.
Exactly, that is the danger. If the content providers see declining revenues they will move to protect their business and we may see a decline of content going online unless there is a real way to monetize it. The cable companies are already pushing this because somewhat understandably they are a little bit miffed at having to pay for something that is given away for free on the web.
Just recently we have seen a game of chicken between Viacom and TWC and it will continue until it's resolved. The cable co's are working to make online video available via a unified subscription. So that you can watch the content via your PC or other device if you choose, but only if you have a subscription. This will provide incremental revenue for 'online content' all be it small, but that is likely to be more than the ad revenue generated by Hulu. If this gains traction it could also drive less content onto Hulu and others and that is a going to be an issue…
I got Boxee and I dumped my cable provider (FOXTEL in Australia).
Yes I am techno savy but as the technology gets more user freindly it is OBVIOUS were the future is….
I only have one question……HOW DO I INVEST IN BOXEE????
Count me in as another non-cable subscriber. I'm a 27 year old professional, and I could afford the $100+ cable package, but I don't want/need it. Free OTA HDTV gives me the HDTV and most live programming I need. Boxee and the various download and streaming services out there help supplement my desire to watch shows when I cannot in prime time, and the handful of cable television shows that I do not receive.
Wow! this is a sobering exchange and it just shows how out of touch the old world of media is about where things are going. I recall a very similar exchange when telco's said that VOIP would never work and would never bring down the cost of phone service. That was when I used to pay $0.75 per minute for long distance. They also argued that bandwidth would be the issue. Boy were they wrong.
I can see Mark's argument that the current providers will be the first place that people turn for new TV services, but companies like boxee will take part of their market share and also force down prices. I for one embrace this. I believe that it will be like Vonage in the VOIP market. Vonage is not in every home, but they have a HUGE install base. But their bigger contribution is that they forced the local telco's to bring out unlimited calling plans for a reasonable price in order to compete.
The cable world we also be forced to do the same. When Boxee comes out in an easy to use form, people will begin to migrate and save money. If the cable operators don't compete, then more people will move to boxee. In the end, many people will stay with cable but enjoy the lower prices. Others will move to Boxee and enjoy even lower prices and more flexibility.
So, I wish you luck on this venture. I think your biggest risk is not total failure, but rather other competitors. This is a new market and Boxee cannot be the only ones thinking about doing home delivery of content. So keep your eye on your business and your real competition. I think that Apple, Microsoft and Hulu are all looking at the same market. You need to be first to market and have the best product! Best of luck!
great points, but two thoughts:
1. boxee can only drive down prices if the content creators with quality content agree to put their content on boxee. So far every internet-first tv show has flopped when taken to broadcast. Keep in mind that there are not unlimited funds to produce quality content. A guy with a webcam is not quality content no matter how you want to slice it – it either ends up with a tiny amount of viewers over its life, or is a one hit wonder. The content providers all get the most money from cable distribution and physical disc sales, then digital sales and rentals. Pay attention to the rental terms for any given movie on cable on demand, Xbox, or appleTV. They are all the same 24 hour playing window, either 14 or 30 days to watch, etc. Pay attention to what's available for rental versus digital purchase. Usually digital purchase is not available until on demand/rentals and physical sales have been given a 30-day lead time. Pay attention to the streaming offerings on amazon (what used to be called their unbox service) and on netflix. While there are some decent films there, and decent shows, there is a severe lack of new and good stuff. There is plenty of back catalog. Always remember that there are roomfulls of people figuring out the best way, cent-by-cent, to extract all the money possible out of a movie or show's production life.
2. Side note on Vonage – they have a "huge" install base, but their subscriber numbers are declining heavily. I am just one of hundreds of thousands of people who have cancelled service with them once the "big players" in cable started offering the same service as a discounted part of a discounted monthly plan. Vonage is just as greedy as the rest of them- having quietly edged their prices up over the last two years – from $25 per month up to $33/34 per month, all for nothing new or better service. Vonage is a pretty 'dirty' VoIP system that doesn't even work well with home alarm systems, much less regular phone calls when you are doing anything else of substance online. If you have a problem with Vonage service, they just try to blame the internet provider while they collect the monthly bill. If you call the internet provider, they are under no obligation to help you out with Vonage problems. At this point it's all a matter of choosing the devil you know versus the one you don't. I know that by getting VoIP through my internet/cable provider, I can call and bitch them out if service is interrupted.
That being said don't just blindly follow and assume every little guy has your best interests at heart. Boxee wouldn't exist if they didn't have dreams of dollars signs floating around somewhere. Everyone has to pay for content somehow, or it simply will not exist. All the crappy content in the world, supported by cheap ads with cheap revenue for the content creator, or a big amazing movie that cost tons to make paid for by a studio and some financial backers. Either way all the people along the way have to make a profit, and this cost will ultimately be passed on to you, the consumer.
one thing all the boxee fanboys here seem to be ignoring- with all that amazing bandwidth in the future, there will be a price to pay, in the form of bandwidth caps. Like someone else said, the cablecos/telcos wil get their "pound of flesh" one way or another.
and once they implement the 'tv anywhere' model, they will be offering every option/stream/file format available – on one bill.
always keep in mind – how would you explain the process of setting up boxee (on an apple tv) to the average idiot?
until it comes in a box that i can buy somewhere and plug in, or pay someone to come in a plug in for me, and works all the time, and has someone that i can call and bitch out when it doesn't – it's not going to fly with the average consumer, who can be quite demanding. the average internet nerd has a completely different level of patience when it comes to content, and is willing to live with the side effects of experimenting.
Mark,
You seem to be arguing two things:
1. Cable TV's lack of features is a temporary situation and will improve.
Fair enough; you have a point there.
2. Current limits on transfer speeds are a permanent situation and will not improve.
What?
What Cuban is trying to say is that Boxee and many internet companies is they are lacking a real business model. By that, he means a profitable business model. Without a way to make money, how will you continue to grow and innovate? If you don't innovate fast enough, you won't last. And you need funding to do things faster. And to get funding, you need to prove that your business can be profitable and not another failing dot com.
Do you want to be like Google, meaning give the users what they want for free and sell ads? But to do that, you need a real innovative product, not an open source front end application supported by an online community. There's no money in it. Google has a real innovative product that is extremely profitable and funds all their other products, and that is their search engine. There's nothing innovative about Boxee that can't be duplicated by the cable/telco companies with their STBs. They control the content and the mechanism to deliver it to every home. And with the money and power to change the game when they are threatened.
Boxee needs to innovate or in a few years we will be saying, "remember boxee? …." Get that boxee box out as fast as you can, maybe then you have something unique in a product that investors can put their money behind.
As the music business about 'it will never happen'. Connections got a lot faster. Apple gave us iTunes with a way to take it with us and it happened. Streamed a show from hulu.com to my 48" HD tv and my wife never made a comment on the quality of the show (probably because cable compresses most of their stuff to an inch of its life anyway). The biggest concern I have is companies like Comcast who are capping internet usage at 250 gigs per month and no matter what they say about why they are doing it, I am pretty confident it is to protect their cable business.
Strange, I've been watching HDTV since 2002 on my 52" mitsubishi OTA only. I have had no gripes or qualms about it, ever. There are only one or two channels I wish I had cable for, but i don't care enough to spend more than $50 for them.
Mark Cuban had me in larfs.
The definitive word, Cuban-dude.
I watch hdnet every great now and then, i use boxee at least once a week (since I used the Internet 8 hours a day and watch TV… including boxee…three hours a week, that says something). My kids don't even get the idea of TV. Schedules? WTF. Really? So Boxee has a future, but HDnet, short sell!
A sound business plan may be a problem for Boxee…but its also a problem for Cuban-dude. Neither can easily thrive on advertising, although given that HDNet is old media, I think it's days are rapidly numbered.
Now is the Internet ready for this? Um, I get my TV over Fios. Can you send Internet? Uh-huh. Buzzt … game over.
Cuban is totally right. Look, I like Boxee (or will like it, I guess, when it comes out for the PC). It's pretty nice. But I am fairly adept at getting things going and in finding stuff I want to watch.
But in the real world, there's my wife, who wants to watch good programming, but doesn't want to search for it. And that's most people. They want good programming, but why should they want to search on Hulu for it. The problem is that the internet is TOO differentiated. That differentiation attracts a certain kind of person who likes to evangelize about the virtues of "choice". But most people don't want that much choice. That much choice requires serious effort, and often doesn't even produce that much better viewing options at the margin.
Also:
"you’re right. i know nothing about MMA. the fact that this type of violence is becoming mainstream entertainment is a topic for a separate discussion."
What the hell are you complaining about MMA for? So fine, it's not your cup of tea and you don't know much about Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. So don't watch it. But the moralizing here is a little silly. This is a very competitive sport with very skilled people, and much less dangerous than, say, American football or boxing.
Just wanted to chime in about the content grooming, deciding what the users want argument that MC raised as a differentiation of service.
This totally disregards the wisdom of the crowds and their implicit and explicit consumption/rating of content which ends up giving you the same results as the cable companies when determining content quality and ease of find-ability.
In the near future it will also serve to surface rough gems and pay them in advance via crowd financing to develop better quality content.
The social networks will play a big part in grooming distributing quality content and boxee is off to a great start by creating an open and social app that will harness this.
Another defining factor will be creating the best experience. You guys are both correct in realizing that for the best experience there needs to be changes in both infrastructure and technology happening at the same time as creating the killer webtv app.
That doesn't mean that there can't be a good enough experience with the technology that exists now. One that the average punter can understand and enjoy. Just that it may be a while before you get that aha ipod moment that brings it all together in a way that makes sense for most people.
Whether boxee is the company that does this is up for debate, however, I think that they are of to a great start with their open, social, intelligent, playful and free* approach.
Good luck boxee.
As for Cable companies getting thiers by using bandwidth caps, remember that a bunch of cities will have access to WiMax this summer and more are coming. WiMax will be competing directly with the other Internet providers and since WiMax providers do not also sell Cable TV, WiMax may be a great streaming alternative with 6mb speeds for residential customers. They won't have the same incentive to cap bandwidth.
Hmm I think Mr. Cuban fails to see the big picture. The generation is no longer short attention span, it is tech savvy. Just from a low level tech stand point my tivo HD DVR, basically a networked linux box with cable card – delivers regular tv content, netflix on demand, amazon movie dls, and streaming content from any of my MS wireless N networked PCs. Thanks to time shifting we are no longer bound to network schedules. We already pick and choose the content we want. Boxee is just an extension of that. I have a so-so 6MB DSL connection. It servers my VOIP, my wireless N network and wired PC. I DL content at my leasure. If I want to see the latest release in HD? Playstation network has it for 5 bucks, I kick off a dl before I leave for work – bang ready to watch and 14 days to do it. Keep in mind all of this is NOT using boxee, so it's happening.
final thoughts – if you need any proof, look at Susan Doyle. A middle aged Scottish woman is more famous than you becuase the content of her singing on a show only seen in the UK was downloaded around the world.
Mark has a very valid point. The same companies (Comcast, Time Warner, etc…) that control the physical hardware backing the internet are also the cable companies. Currently, our broadband usage is being metered out and limited to maximize their profits while allowing just enough to keep us from complaining.
How much more bandwidth would it take to feed 1 HD stream into a household? Probably about 5-6 mbps or about 1-2 more than I currently have. Is this a coincidence? Of course it isn't.
Here's another example, here (Westminster, CO) there were widespread talks to turn the city into a wireless cloud. The whole expense was calculated and easily justified by using funds from public services (Police, Fire, etc…). Did it happen? No. It went from very nearly becoming a reality to becoming a hush hush topic. Smells like someone got bought off to me? If you don't think so, look up Westminster. The city is not shy at all about providing public services to its residents. We have one of the top recreation infrastructures in the country.
Where the railroad system was derailed in the early 20th century because of greed, corruption, and monopolistic business. The internet is being controlled the same way today. The only difference is, they have enough sense to stay out of each others way and not make it a public issue.
Japan, the highest bandwidth country, on average has a 24mbps per capita average (more than enough to support many tvs running HD content plus internet downloads). The US sits somewhere closer to 4mbps (24th place).
I love living in the states, but I wish our people would shut up for a second to realize that our Democracy is becoming an oligarchy.
The current speeds will easily support individuals but, until someone takes a stand, families will be stuck in the traditional model.
Just installed BOXEE and love it so far. I dropped my cable a year ago and went OTA + iTunes and it works well for me. Despite all that, I have to agree with prior sentiments about BOXEE needing a business model. If you don't find one fast you'll just be a new TIVO, a great product that the Telcos imitated just enough to keep their customers.
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